Trading Strategy & Outlook: Week of Nov 10-14, 2025

Market Overview and Strategic Insights: The Week of November 3

As we prepare to outline our trading strategy and market outlook for the week of November 10 to 14, it’s important to first review key developments from the recent trading session. The week spanning November 3 to 7 marked what appears to be the early stages of a market pullback. Major stock indices experienced notable declines, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 facing the sharpest drops of 2.12% and 3.82% week-over-week, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 ETF also fell, albeit more moderately, by 1.41% and 1.38%.

This pullback, while impactful, aligns with expectations that Ki-Wealth and various market analysts have been sharing for several weeks. A critical factor underpinning this movement is the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has begun to exert tangible pressure on both the labor market and broader economic conditions. The labor market’s softening trend was evident in October’s addition of only 42,000 private sector jobs—a slight rebound but still indicative of weakness. Additionally, the ISM Manufacturing Index remained below the contraction threshold at 48.7, signaling continuing challenges within manufacturing and raising concerns about the overall economic momentum.

It’s crucial to highlight that these declines unfolded alongside robust trading volumes. The S&P 500’s average daily volume reached 5.81 billion shares, translating to an estimated notional daily volume of approximately $7.9 trillion, based on an average index level near 6,800. The Nasdaq 100 exhibited even heavier selling pressure, with the QQQ ETF averaging 13.8 million shares traded daily. For perspective, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hovered around 47,200 during this period, resulting in an estimated daily notional volume of about $5.4 trillion, while the Russell 2000 ETF saw daily volumes amounting to approximately $6.15 billion. These figures are derived from proxy data provided by Financial Modelling Prep and reflect Ki-Wealth’s careful estimations in the absence of direct index volume data.

From an investor behavior standpoint, our analysis reveals that institutional investors drove much of the recent sell-off, particularly in portfolios concentrated in AI and technology sectors. Concerns over lofty valuations and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy appear to have motivated this shift. The technology sector, in particular, bore the brunt of the declines with a 4.39% drop, making it last week’s weakest performer. Meanwhile, retail investors remained active, but their focus shifted toward more defensive areas of the market such as utilities, energy, and consumer staples—sectors that outperformed during the period.

Performance by Sector: Week of November 3-7, 2025

Source: Finviz, Ki-Wealth Research

Despite pressure on the Russell 2000 ETF, small-cap stocks are emerging as attractive opportunities given their lower valuations. This dynamic suggests that value-oriented investors are engaging selectively in these areas, identifying potential for gains in a more cautious market environment.

The past week’s market action underscores the interplay of economic uncertainties, investor sentiment, and sector rotation, which will continue to shape our approach in the coming days.

Weekly Economic Outlook: November 10 to November 14, 2025

The week of November 10 to November 14 is expected to be relatively quiet in terms of economic data releases, particularly in the United States. This slowdown is largely due to the ongoing government shutdown, which has disrupted the flow of data from key agencies such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

In the U.S., November 11 marks Veterans’ Day. While the stock market will remain open, the bond market will close, and no major economic reports are anticipated on this day.

On November 12, attention will turn to the release of the Weekly Economic Index from the New York Federal Reserve, which provides a timely overview of economic activity. Additionally, private-sector reports, including ADP employment figures, may offer valuable insights to compensate for the lack of government data caused by the shutdown.

Thursday, November 13, and Friday, November 14, are poised to be significant days for economic indicators. On Thursday, key releases include the October Consumer Price Index (CPI), a primary measure of inflation; data on real earnings, which adjusts wage growth for inflation; and the Treasury Statement, which details federal budget information.

Friday’s schedule features the October Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks wholesale inflation. The Advance Retail Sales report will provide essential information on consumer spending trends, while the Business Inventories report is expected to shed light on supply chain conditions and inventory levels.

In Europe, several important economic events will take place during the week:

• November 11 (Tuesday): Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index will be published, reflecting investor confidence and expectations.
• November 12 (Wednesday): The Eurogroup will meet to discuss fiscal and monetary policies.
• November 13 (Thursday): Eurozone Industrial Production data for September is forecasted to show a 1.2% month-over-month decline, indicating ongoing challenges in manufacturing. Additionally, preliminary GDP figures for the UK’s third quarter will be released, alongside the EU Council ECOFIN meeting, where energy taxation and customs reform will be key topics.
• November 14 (Friday): The Eurozone will release its second estimate for third-quarter GDP, expected to show modest growth of 0.1% quarter-over-quarter and 1.5% year-over-year. Employment figures are anticipated to indicate a slight improvement, and the trade balance will be closely watched as a gauge of external demand.

Market Outlook for the S&P 500 Index: November 10–14, 2025

Ki-Wealth’s latest simulation analysis projects a predominantly bearish outlook for the S&P 500 index for the week of November 10 through November 14, 2025. The start of the week is expected to bring moderate volatility, driven primarily by a substantial slate of corporate earnings releases and several bond auctions. Investors should prepare for market fluctuations as these key events unfold.

In light of Ki-Wealth’s findings, a defensive investment approach is advisable. Sectors such as consumer staples and industrials are recommended as potential safe havens. Specifically, companies like Tyson Foods and Barrick Gold are highlighted for their defensive qualities. The earnings reports from Tyson Foods (TSN), Barrick Gold (B), Instacart (CART), and Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) are scheduled for Monday, November 10. Given the recent strong performance in gold prices, Ki-Wealth anticipates that Barrick Gold will report robust earnings per share (EPS). Monitoring bond yields is equally important since any upward movement in yields may place downward pressure on equities, particularly within the technology sector.

A suggested trade strategy for the week is to consider long positions in traditionally defensive sectors, including utilities and consumer staples, especially if bond yields rise. Investors are advised to implement tight stop-loss orders to mitigate risks associated with potential earnings surprises.

Tuesday, November 12, will feature the highly anticipated earnings release from Cisco, which is expected to significantly influence the technology sector. Special attention should be paid to commentary on artificial intelligence and cloud computing trends. Additionally, a bond auction on this day could shape expectations around interest rates and subsequently impact tech sector valuations. Should Cisco exceed earnings forecasts and provide positive guidance, increasing exposure to technology ETFs such as XLK or QQQ may be warranted. Conversely, should bond yields surge, investors may look to hedge technology exposure by taking short positions or utilizing inverse ETFs.

Thursday’s market movements will be heavily influenced by earnings from Disney and Applied Materials (AMAT), which will provide important insights into consumer and semiconductor sector sentiment. The release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on the same day is likely to be the primary market driver. A CPI report cooler than anticipated could justify taking long positions in S&P 500 futures or ETFs. If CPI readings come in hotter than expected, shorting rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities might be prudent. Investors should also closely examine AMAT’s commentary on AI-related capital expenditures, which could provide a boost to semiconductor stocks. Alibaba’s earnings report on Friday warrants attention as well, as it may affect global technology and e-commerce market sentiment. Strong retail sales data in conjunction with Alibaba’s report could support long positions in consumer discretionary ETFs such as XLY. If the Producer Price Index (PPI) indicates rising costs of inputs, a short position in industrials or materials sectors may be advisable. Alibaba’s results will also serve as a valuable indicator of risk exposure for U.S. multinational companies with significant China-related operations.

Technical Analysis & Tactical Trading Strategy for the S&P 500 Index

As we approach the trading week ahead, let’s review the technical landscape and develop a tactical approach for the S&P 500 index. The index closed at 6,728.81 on Friday, November 7, 2025. Although the overall trend remains bullish, short-term indicators suggest a potential corrective phase.

Momentum and Trend Indicators:

• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) over 14 periods stands at approximately 41.6, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish momentum.
• The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has exhibited a bearish crossover, signaling waning momentum.
• The Average Directional Index (ADX) at around 30 reflects a moderate trend strength.
• The current price is trading near the 20-day moving average (around 6,816), which is providing resistance.
• The 200-day moving average (near 6,741) remains a significant long-term support level.
• Volatility, measured by the Average True Range (ATR), is elevated at about 25.8, implying increased price fluctuations.
• Key Fibonacci retracement levels calculated from the recent four-week high and low are as follows:
  • 38.2% retracement: approximately 6,682
  • 50% retracement: roughly 6,658
  • 61.8% retracement: near 6,634

S&P 500 Index: Daily Technical Chart Analysis

Source: Trading View, Ki-Wealth analysis

Daily Technical and Tactical Strategy

Monday, November 10

• Support levels:6,656 and 6,634
• Resistance levels:6,741 and 6,764
• Strategy:Monitor for a potential rebound from the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (around 6,658). If the price maintains positioning above 6,700, consider initiating long positions with a target near the resistance at 6,741. A break below 6,634 could lead to testing lower support around 6,615.

Tuesday, November 11

• Support levels:6,634 and 6,615
• Resistance levels:6,764 and 6,784
• Strategy:Expect lower trading volume due to Veterans Day, resulting in a range-bound market environment. Employ a pivot point-based trading approach: consider buying near support at 6,634 and selling near resistance at 6,764. Avoid breakout trades unless accompanied by significant volume.

Wednesday, November 12

• Support levels:6,615 and 6,593
• Resistance levels:6,784 and 6,827
• Strategy:Anticipate potential upside momentum if Cisco reports strong earnings, possibly triggering a breakout above 6,784. Confirm momentum signals using MACD and RSI before increasing long exposure. A bullish continuation could aim for the 6,827 resistance level.

Thursday, November 13

• Support levels:6,593 and 6,570
• Resistance levels:6,827 and 6,850
• Strategy:The release of CPI data is expected to introduce volatility. A softer-than-expected CPI could fuel a rally toward the 6,850–6,900 range, while elevated inflation figures may provoke a pullback toward 6,570. Utilize Fibonacci extensions to project potential upside targets.

Friday, November 14

• Support levels:6,570 and 6,552
• Resistance levels:6,850 and 6,900
• Strategy:Key economic releases, including retail sales and Producer Price Index (PPI), are likely to guide market direction. In a bullish scenario, the index may test resistance near 6,900, aligning with recent one-month highs. Conversely, a bearish outcome could see prices breaking below support levels near 6,552.

Week-End Price Projection:

• Bullish scenario:Targets range from 6,900 to 6,950
• Bearish scenario:Targets range from 6,570 to 6,615
• Neutral or range-bound scenario:Expected to trade between 6,650 and 6,800

Beware of bearish bias for the S&P 500 index during the next five trading days. Ki-Wealth recommends selling during the index’s up-days.

Nasdaq 100 Index Outlook and Technical Trading Strategy

The Nasdaq 100 index exhibits a trading pattern similar to that of the S&P 500 index, with notable profit-taking occurring within the 25,752 to 26,190 price range. Despite this, the overall trend remains bullish. For the upcoming five trading days, Ki-Wealth forecasts an increased probability of a decline, estimating it at 63%. The projected target price for the Nasdaq 100 index by the close of trading on November 14th, 2025, is 24,808.

This probability estimate was derived using a standard normal distribution model applied to the forecasted closing prices of the Nasdaq 100 index for the period from November 10 to November 14, 2025. The model assumes that the closing price on November 14 follows a normal distribution centered on the mean forecasted value, with the standard deviation calculated from the variability among the forecasted prices. This approach provides a statistically rigorous basis for estimating the likelihood of a price decline.

Day-by-Day Trading Strategy

Monday, November 10
Strategy: Monitor for directional confirmation following the weekend gap.
Bias: Expect bullish continuation if the price remains above 25,280.
Action: Initiate buy positions on dips in the 24,930 to 24,980 range.
Stop-loss: Set at 24,604
Target: 25,230.

Tuesday, November 11
Strategy: Observe flat movements or a potential breakout above the resistance level at 25,440.
Bias: If breakout level holds, anticipate momentum to continue upward.
Action: Enter long positions upon confirmation of the breakout.
Stop-loss: Set at 25,273
Target: 25,640.

Wednesday, November 12
Strategy: Prepare for mid-week volatility and potential pullbacks.
Bias: Considered a buy-on-dip opportunity.
Action: Buy near 24,920 to 25,120, provided the Relative Strength Index (RSI) surpasses 50.
Stop-loss: Set at 24,888
Target: 25,565.

Thursday, November 13
Strategy: If economic data and EPS releases disappoint, position for a potential sell-off.
Bias: Bearish if macro indicators align.
Action: Sell if price reaches 25,585 – 25,750 range.
Target: 24,779.

Friday, November 14
Strategy: Secure profits ahead of the weekend trading session.
Bias: Expect consolidation or a mild recovery if Thursday’s scenario holds.
Action: Partially take profits near 25,302 while holding remaining positions with a tight trailing stop. Please don’t start new positions unless there is a strong breakout above 26,202.

Nasdaq 100 Index: Daily Technical Chart

Source: Trading View, Ki-Wealth analysis

Earnings To Watch This Week

Monday: MNDY, CART, RGTI, CRWV, BBAI, RKLB, TSN, B

Tuesday: SE, OKLO, CAMT, LAC

Wednesday: CRCL, ONON, CSCO, SERV, CURI, ENLT

Thursday: DIS, BITF, JD, NICE, AMAT, NU, BILI

Friday: BABA, QUBT, BTBT

Stocks to Watch during the Week of November 10 – November 14, 2025

Ki-Wealth highlights the stocks to watch during the week of November 10 – November 14, 2025.

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