Stock Market Week November 18 – what to expect, how to trade
This article concisely overviews the most significant macroeconomic events on the stock market from November 18-22. I also discuss the most intriguing earnings for the week and share my strategy on my stock picks.
Market Mood Swing: NASDAQ Plummets 3.7% as Big Tech Selloff Hits Hard
Last week, the NASDAQ took a nosedive, plummeting 3.7% with a staggering 2% drop last Friday alone. The culprit? A major selloff in big tech. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones also felt the pain, down 2.3% and 1.4%, respectively. But don’t hit the panic button yet – stocks are still riding high this November, thanks to the two last weeks’ post-election surge.
Powell’s Punch to the Market
Last week, I sounded the alarm: beware Thursday’s volatility, driven by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated speech. I cautioned that the Fed’s moves could overshadow the election’s impact. Looks like I was spot on. The market is still reeling from Powell’s words of caution, hinting that rate cuts might be on the backburner.
December Rate Cut Hopes Fading
Forget about that Santa Claus rally rate cut. Soaring inflation signals and strong economic data are making a December cut less likely. Friday’s PPI report was scorching hot, retail sales smashed expectations, and import prices surprised to the upside. Suddenly, those inflation fears don’t seem so far-fetched.
Empire Manufacturing: The Shock and Awe
But the real jaw-dropper? The Empire Manufacturing report, which soared to a three-year high of 31.2, obliterating the 0.0 consensus estimate. New Orders and Shipments went into overdrive, painting a picture of a white-hot economy.
Hawks Circling, Market Reacts
The S&P 500 slipped 2.30% to 5870, the Dow shed 1.39% to 43,445. Even the Russell 2000, which rallied 8.6% post-election, came back down to earth, falling 4.47% to 2304. The message is clear: inflation is stubborn, and it’s got everyone’s attention as we barrel towards the December Fed meeting and a new administration in 2024.
Last Week’s Takeaway
The past week proved one thing: the market can turn on a dime. As investors, we need to stay nimble, keep our eyes on that CPI data, and brace for what could be an exciting end to 2024.
Get Ready, Investors: This Week Could Get Bumpy
The week of November 18-22 is shaping up to be a wild ride for investors. With a slew of macroeconomic questions looming, it’s time to strap in, keep your eyes peeled, and get ready to actively manage those portfolios.
Monday: A Calm Before the Storm
Monday, November 18, might seem like a snooze fest, with relatively low volatility and the stock market flatlining or drifting slowly downwards. But don’t get too comfortable – there’s a potentially market-moving event on the horizon.Vertiv (VRT)is hosting its Investor Day, and if you’re not paying attention, you could miss out.
Vertiv’s Investor Day kicks off at 2:30 p.m. Eastern Time in Atlanta, Georgia, alongside the SC24 International Conference for High Performance Computing. Expect the Vertiv management team to dish out the dirt on the company’s vision, strategy, current ops, market opportunities, and financial performance. Think juicy insights into strategic direction, market trends, innovation, and operational initiatives.
Now, Vertiv’s event might not have the power to single-handedly propel the entire stock market forward. But if they drop some positive updates or announcements, it could send Vertiv’s stock soaring and give a boost to related sectors – especially those playing in the digital infrastructure and high-performance computing spaces.
Tuesday: When the EU CPI and U.S. Housing Starts Take Center Stage
Things heat up on Tuesday, November 19, with the EU CPI data and U.S. Housing Starts set to drop. The market is betting on no change for the EU CPI, but I’ve got a sneaking suspicion things might not play out that way.
Remember when the EU CPI surprised everyone by ticking upwards in October 2024? That 2.0% annual inflation rate for the euro area, up from 1.7% in September, wasn’t just a fluke. It was fueled by rising prices in food, alcohol, tobacco, and non-energy industrial goods – and it might just be a sign of things to come.
The European Economic Forecast for Autumn 2024 is calling for ongoing inflationary pressures, with the European Central Bank (ECB) projecting an increase in Q4 2024 before a gradual return to target levels by the end of 2025. So, when that EU CPI for November 2024 hits, don’t be shocked if it shows continued growth, driven by energy prices, supply chain chaos, and other economic wildcards.
And if that’s not enough to get your heart racing, the U.S. Housing Starts are expected to take a slight dip from 1.354 million to 1.340 million – hardly the stuff dreams are made of.
Walmart Earnings: A Potential Make-or-Break Moment
But wait, there’s more! Tuesday also brings the Q3 2024 financial results from retail behemoth Walmart (WMT). The company is set to spill the beans before the U.S. market opens, with the street expecting a 4.31% YoY EPS jump to $0.53 and a 4.47% YoY revenue bump to $166.6 billion.
Walmart’s currently trading at a P/E ratio of 44.0x and a P/Sales ratio of 1.03 – well above its peer group average. That spells “overpriced” to me, and if those earnings disappoint, we could see the stock take a tumble.
But here’s the thing: Walmart’s got 29 “STRONG BUY” recommendations and only one lonely “SELL” rating. And with the holiday season just around the corner, they might just surprise us with some rosy guidance to get everyone in the festive spirit. So, don’t write off Tuesday just yet – we might just see a “Turnaround Tuesday” after all.
Wednesday: The Calm Before the Nvidia Storm
Wednesday, November 20, might seem like a breather, but don’t get too comfortable. Nvidia’s gearing up to drop its Q3 2024 financial results after the U.S. market closes, and let me tell you, the stakes are high.
Last week, NVDA took a 4.51% hit as those interest rate cut hopes started to fade. Now, the question on everyone’s mind is: can Nvidia smash those earnings expectations and restore investor faith?
If the answer is yes, strap in for a potential stock market rally that could lift the entire sector. But if they miss the mark… well, let’s just say it could get ugly.
Thursday: When Nvidia Earnings and U.S. Existing Home Sales Collide
Thursday, November 21, is shaping up to be a real nail-biter. Nvidia’s earnings will still be fresh on everyone’s minds, and the U.S. existing home sales data will be adding fuel to the fire.
But wait, there’s more! The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing data will be dropping, adding an extra layer of complexity to the mix. Will the manufacturing sector come out swinging, or will it struggle to gain traction? One thing’s for sure: this trifecta of data has the potential to whip the stock market into a frenzy.
Friday: Riding the Waves of Thursday’s Chaos
By the time Friday, November 22, rolls around, investors will be reeling from the whirlwind of Thursday’s events. But don’t expect a quiet finish to the week – the U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing and Services data will be dropping, giving us a glimpse into the underlying health of the economy.
Will the manufacturing sector show signs of resilience, or will the services sector come out on top? Either way, this data has the potential to set the tone for the week’s final stretch and leave investors on the edge of their seats.
The Conclusion for the Week: Keep Your Eyes Open, Buttercup
This week is shaping up to be a doozy, with a non-stop barrage of market-moving events and data drops. There’s no room for passive investing here – it’s time to roll up your sleeves, keep your eyes glued to the screens, and be ready to pounce at a moment’s notice.
So, my dear investors, please be prepared. It’s about to get hot.
The Most Exciting Reports For the Week of November 18
Get ready for a thrilling ride! This week is packed with earnings reports that could shake up the market. I’ve got my eye on the most intriguing ones, and I’m breaking them down for my valuedPremiumandProfessionalsubscribers. Buckle up because these releases have the potential to be game-changers.
Monday:SYM, TCOM
Tuesday:WMT, LOW,MDT, FUTU, VIPS, WB, POWL, AZEK, KEYS, LZB,
Wednesday:NIO,TGT, TJX, WIX, WSM, YUM, NVDA,SNOW,PANW, SQM
Thursday:BIDU, PDD, DE, ROST,GAP,INTU
Friday: BKE
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