September 22-26: Stock Market Outlook & Strategy

Market Overview: Week of September 15 – September 19, 2025

During the week of September 15 to 19, 2025, major U.S. stock indices reached new record highs. The S&P 500 increased by approximately 1.04%, the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.00%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.01%. The Russell 2000, which tracks small-cap stocks, climbed 2.04%.

Investor confidence was notably strong, largely influenced by theFederal Reserve’sdecision on September 17 to reduce interest rates by 0.25%. This marked the resumption of an easing cycle after an eight-month pause and was widely expected by market participants. The rate cut helped reinforce support for equity markets.

Leading technology stocks, notably the so-called “Magnificent 7” — including Apple, Alphabet (Google), Meta, andTesla— continued to drive gains. Tesla stood out with a significant weekly increase of 14.86%, following a substantial stock purchase by Elon Musk. Investors who followed Ki-Wealth on a long-term basis and followed Ki-Wealth’s recentinvestment tipsrelated to trading strategy on Tesla (TSLA), realized double-digit returns just in these two weeks after September 3, 2025.

Market breadth improved, with gains extending beyond large-cap stocks to include small caps and value-oriented shares. This broader participation suggests that the rally was becoming more widespread.

The Federal Reserve’s rate reduction lowered borrowing costs, enhancing the appeal of equities compared to bonds. Sectors sensitive to interest rate changes—such as technology, financials, and real estate—benefited most from this environment.

Technology and communication services led the market rally, supported by ongoing advancements inartificial intelligence, cloud computing, and digital platforms. Investors showed a preference for companies demonstrating strong growth potential and solid financial health.

Industrial stocks outperformed as increased government and private sector investments in infrastructure and defense took hold, alongside a trend toward reshoring manufacturing activities to the United States.

Performance By Sector, Week of September 15 – September 19, 2025

Source: Finviz, Ki-Wealth Research

Additionally, there was a noticeable rotation toward value and small-cap stocks, which had underperformed earlier in the year. These segments typically benefit when the Fed eases monetary policy and long-term yields decline, conditions that materialized during this week.

Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) Performance and Technical Analysis

The Russell 2000 ETF, which targets small-cap stocks, closed the week at $236.85, sitting just a few percentage points below its 52-week high of $244.84. Year-to-date, the ETF has delivered a return of approximately 11.58%, while its one-year return stands at around 13.01% as of September 19, 2025.

From a medium-term perspective, IWM is maintaining a strong upward trend within a clearly defined rising channel. This pattern reflects sustained positive momentum and growing investor interest in the small-cap segment.

A notable technical development is the ETF’s recent breakout above the $210 level, following the completion of an inverse head and shoulders formation. This is a classic bullish pattern signaling the potential for continued price appreciation. Currently, the ETF faces resistance near $242. A decisive move above this threshold would confirm further bullish strength up to the next level at 258.08, whereas failure to break through could lead to profit-taking. On the downside, critical support is established between $210 and $220, corresponding to the prior breakout zone.

iShares Russell 2000 ETF – Technical Chart Analysis

Source: Trading View, Ki-Wealth analysis

Key technical indicators reinforce the positive outlook. The ETF exhibits a beta of 1.13, indicating it is somewhat more volatile than the broader S&P 500 index. Its trailing three-year standard deviation is 21.9%, reflecting moderate historical volatility. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stands at 3.78, suggesting bullish momentum, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 63.81, approaching overbought territory but not yet at an extreme level. Recent short-term volatility over the past 22 trading days has been 8.65%, with the ETF gaining 7.74% during this period.

In terms of sector exposure, the ETF is diversified across nearly 2,000 holdings. The largest sector allocations are Financials (18.2%), Industrials, and Information Technology. The top 10 holdings make up just over 4% of the total assets, underscoring the broad diversification within this fund.

During the week of September 15 to 19, 2025, several stocks within IWM delivered powerful performances. Leading contributors included Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (CRDO), which holds a 0.87% weight in the ETF and benefited from robust demand in semiconductors and networking. Fabrinet (FN) and Bloom Energy Corporation (BE) also stood out, driven by solid earnings reports and positive industry trends in clean energy, respectively. Defense contractorKratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS)gained from increased defense spending and new contracts. IonQ, Inc. (IONQ), notable for its advances in quantum computing, showed significant gains, aligning with emerging technological interests. Additionally, Nextracker Inc. (NXT) performed well on heightened demand for solar infrastructure.

Overall, the Russell 2000 ETF continues to demonstrate strength across multiple fronts, supported by favorable technical patterns, sector diversification, and standout individual stock performances that contribute positively to the fund’s momentum.

Key Data Releases from September 22 to September 26, 2025

The week of September 22 to September 26, 2025, is expected to be relatively quiet in terms of major events but could still experience some market volatility. Below is a summary of the important macroeconomic data scheduled for release in the United States and the European Union during this period, along with their potential market implications.

United States: Important Economic Indicators

Monday, September 22, 2025
No significant macroeconomic data are scheduled for release.

Tuesday, September 23, 2025
S&P Global Services and Manufacturing PMI (Flash for September)
Both indices are forecasted to remain just above the 50 mark, signaling modest expansion in services and manufacturing. The consensus projects a Manufacturing PMI of 51.0 and a Services PMI of 51.5. PMI readings above 50 indicate economic growth, which can improve market sentiment. Conversely, weaker-than-expected results may raise concerns about the economy’s momentum.

Wednesday, September 24, 2025
New Home Sales (August)
New home sales are expected to show a slight increase compared to the previous month, reflecting some stabilization in the housing market as mortgage rates ease. Strong home sales can boost consumer confidence and benefit sectors like construction and building materials, while weaker sales may put pressure on homebuilder stocks.

Thursday, September 25, 2025
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q2 Final Estimate
The final estimate for Q2 GDP growth is expected to confirm an annualized rate of around 3.3%, indicating a rebound from the contraction seen in Q1. However, some analysts caution that this figure may be inflated by inventory buildup related to tariff anticipation. TheBureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)will also release its annual update on GDP, industry, and state statistics, including new data on business investment in data centers. GDP data often influence market movements strongly, with positive surprises supporting equities, especially in cyclical sectors, while revisions can increase volatility.

Existing Home Sales (August)
Existing home sales are projected to remain steady or show a slight increase, reflecting improved housing affordability.

Friday, September 26, 2025
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (August)
This key inflation gauge is expected to rise by 0.25% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, remaining above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Since the Fed closely monitors the Core PCE for monetary policy decisions, higher-than-expected inflation could reduce expectations for rate cuts, while a softer reading might boost equity markets.

European Union: Key Economic Indicators

Monday, September 22, 2025
Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (September)
Consumer confidence is forecasted to improve slightly to -14.8 but remain negative overall, indicating cautious sentiment among consumers.

Tuesday, September 23, 2025
Euro Area HCOB Composite, Manufacturing, and Services PMI Flash (September)
All PMI indices are expected to hover just above 50—Composite at 51.4, Manufacturing at 50.5, and Services at 51.0—pointing to modest growth. Positive surprises could support European equities and the euro, while weaker data might weigh on markets.

Wednesday, September 24, 2025
European Central Bank (ECB) Non-Monetary Policy Meeting
No major data releases are expected, but any remarks from the ECB could influence market sentiment.

Thursday, September 25, 2025
Euro Area Loans to Companies and Households (August)
Euro Area M3 Money Supply (August)
Loans to companies and households are projected to grow by approximately 2.8% and 2.5% year-over-year, respectively, while M3 money supply is expected to increase by 3.2%. These figures provide insight into credit conditions and liquidity in the economy. Strong growth tends to support risk assets, while weaker data might signal tightening financial conditions.

Friday, September 26, 2025
ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)
Inflation expectations are expected to remain steady at 2.6%, aligning with the ECB’s medium-term target. Stable inflation expectations help reinforce the ECB’s current policy stance and can contribute to steadiness in bond and equity markets.

Broader Economic Outlook

United States
The Federal Reserve’s latest projections for 2025 estimate real GDP growth between 2.1% and 2.3%. While Q2 showed solid growth, underlying momentum is slowing due to factors such as tariffs and inventory effects. Inflation, measured by the Core PCE, is expected to stay above the Fed’s 2% target at around 3%, but with a gradual easing trend. The Fed recently lowered interest rates to 4.25% and is anticipated to cut rates at least once more this year, with further easing possible in 2026. These policies support equities, particularly small-cap and value stocks, though risks from trade tensions and persistent inflation remain.

European Union
The ECB projects GDP growth of 1.2% for 2025, a slight upward revision due to stronger-than-expected data. Growth is supported by rising wages, increased government spending, and easier financial conditions. Inflation, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is expected to stabilize around 2.1%. The ECB is likely to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, keeping financing conditions accommodative. This environment favors European equities, though trade tensions and a stronger euro may challenge exporters.

Market Implications of Upcoming Releases

Stronger-than-expected growth or lower inflation figures generally boost equity markets, benefiting cyclical and small-cap stocks in the U.S. and export-oriented companies in Europe. Conversely, disappointing growth data, persistent inflation, or signals of tighter central bank policies can trigger market sell-offs, especially in sectors sensitive to interest rates. In the U.S., sectors like communications, real estate, energy, and healthcare are currently viewed as undervalued and stand to gain from easing monetary policy, while utilities appear overvalued. Currency movements also play a role: a strong euro could hurt European exporters, while a weaker dollar may support U.S. multinational companies.

Summary: Major Economic Data Releases & Market Sensitivity

Nasdaq 100 Index Technical and Market Outlook: September 22–26, 2025

The Nasdaq 100 Index is currently exhibiting a robust upward trend. Notably, price movements on September 18 and 19 were accompanied by increased trading volume, reinforcing the bullish momentum. Ki-Wealth’s simulation and forecast indicate a steady rise throughout the week, with the index expected to close higher on Friday compared to Monday.

For September, the index is projected to reach 25,080, representing a 7.1% gain and suggesting a positive bias for the week starting September 22. Despite the typical seasonal weakness seen in September (Ki-Wealth bearish anticipation for September did not materialize), the index has maintained its climb, supported by broad market participation and firm performance in technology stocks.

Market trend models across all timeframes show favorable signals, with no definitive signs of a trend reversal at this time. That said, some bearish momentum divergence, evidenced by the RSI, and the approach toward overbought territory indicate that a short-term pullback would be a healthy development.

Key Technical Levels as of September 20, 2025:

• Immediate Resistance: The 24,800 to 25,000 range is identified as a strong supply zone where selling pressure is expected. A decisive break and close above 25,000 with strong momentum could open the path to targets between 25,500 and 25,750.
• Immediate Support: The 24,140 to 23,888 zone serves as a demand area likely to attract buyers if prices retrace. A break below 24,300 may accelerate the move toward this support level.
• Medium-Term Support: At 22,510, this level represents a more substantial support in the event of a deeper correction.

Daily Pivot Points:

• Pivot: 25,000
• Resistance Levels: R1 at 24,950, R2 at 24,850, R3 at 24,800
• Support Levels: S1 at 24,483, S2 at 24,461, S3 at 24,448

Technical Indicators:

All major moving averages (10, 20, 50, 100, and 200-day) remain in bullish territory. The 14-day RSI stands at 62.2, bullish but nearing overbought status. The MACD indicator confirms bullish momentum, while the stochastic oscillator signals overbought conditions at 99.5, implying a possible short-term pullback. Volatility remains elevated, with an Average True Range (ATR) of 104.5. Overall, oscillators lean bullish but caution is warranted due to overbought signals.

Detailed Outlook for September 22 – September 26:

The Nasdaq 100 remains within a rising trend channel on medium and long-term charts, reflecting ongoing optimism and a likely continuation of the rally. Nevertheless, the negative RSI divergence suggests the possibility of a brief pullback before further gains resume.

Ki-Wealth’s scenario analysis outlines three potential paths:

• Base Case: Resistance near 25,000 may prompt a pullback to the support zone between 24,245 and 23,888. If buyers defend this area, a renewed rally could push the index toward 25,200 to 25,400.
• Bullish Case: A strong breakout above 25,000 could extend the rally to the 25,700 to 26,000 range.
• Bearish Case: A drop below 24,140 might trigger a deeper correction toward 23,888 or lower.

Investors should monitor these key levels and technical signals to gauge market direction in the near term.

Nasdaq 100 Index Technical Analysis & Outlook

Source: Trading View, Ki-Wealth analysis

S&P 500 Index Technical Analysis and Outlook: September 22-26, 2025

The S&P 500 Index currently displays robust bullish momentum, as evidenced by its position within a rising trend channel on both medium- and long-term charts. This upward trajectory is further supported by key technical indicators. Most notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching overbought territory, signaling strong market strength but also hinting at potential short-term exhaustion.

Examining moving averages reveals an explicit confirmation of the uptrend. The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages all lie below the current price level, reinforcing the positive momentum. This alignment across short- and long-term moving averages collectively suggests a strong buy signal from these technical metrics.

A detailed look at oscillators presents a mixed picture. While some oscillators indicate overbought conditions, others remain neutral, suggesting that while the market is strong, it has not yet reached an extreme level of overheating.

Fibonacci-based levels provide critical reference points for support and resistance. Key Fibonacci support levels are identified at 6,511.8, 6,540.52, and 6,558.27, while the Fibonacci pivot point stands at 6,586.99. On the resistance side, Fibonacci targets are positioned at 6,615.71, 6,633.46, and 6,662.18.

Additional significant levels include a strong support zone between 6,440 and 6,463, which aligns with multiple pivot points and Fibonacci supports. The major resistance range lies between 6,615 and 6,662, coinciding with Fibonacci extensions and recent market highs. Longer-term supports are located at 6,393—corresponding to a 14-day RSI level of 50%—6,360, representing a 50% retracement from the four-week high and low, and 6,254, marking the 38.2% retracement from the 13-week high.

As of September 20, 2025, the 14-day RSI measures 69.84, just shy of the overbought threshold at 70. This value reflects a sharp 7.53% rise over the past month, indicative of strong upward momentum. Nevertheless, the RSI remains below its all-time peak of 86.69, suggesting there is still room for further gains. Despite this, the proximity to the overbought level advises caution, as the market may be nearing a short-term peak.

Looking ahead to the week ending September 26, 2025, forecasts for the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which closely tracks the index, anticipate trading within a broad range of 6,147 to 7,216. The projected closing price on Friday, September 26, is approximately 6,681. While technical models and moving averages continue to support a bullish outlook, the elevated RSI and closeness to resistance levels imply that the index might experience some consolidation or mild pullbacks before attempting to break new highs.

In summary, the S&P 500 remains in a strong uptrend with bullish technical indicators, but investors should remain mindful of potential short-term resistance and overbought conditions that could temper near-term gains.

S&P 500 Index: Technical Analysis and Outlook

Source: Trading View, Ki-Wealth analysis

Week of September 22 – September 26: Trading Strategies

Currently, we find ourselves in a notably strong bullish stock market, making short positions a challenging path to take. The surge in trading volume combined with upward price movements observed on September 18 and 19 wasn’t solely driven by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement. The triple witching day on September 19 also played a significant role in amplifying market activity.

As we approach the week of September 22 to 26, traders should prepare for a potentially complex landscape. This week marks the end of both September and the third quarter of 2025, a period historically known for institutional portfolio rebalancing and increased quarter-end volatility. These factors often contribute to liquidity-driven dips in the market. If you believe the strong bullish trend will persist through the end of the year, this upcoming week could present an excellent opportunity to take profits in overbought stocks and initiate long positions in undervalued stocks.

How should you approach trading this week?

Here are some essential recommendations from Ki-Wealth:

Expect early-week weakness or dips, particularly between September 22 and 24. Negative reactions to economic news or macro headlines could trigger these movements. Use such dips as buying opportunities, ideally on days when prices turn red or after sharp intraday declines. Historically, these moments have paved the way for stronger fourth-quarter returns.

Target undervalued sectors such as small-cap stocks, value-oriented companies, technology, real estate, and healthcare. Meanwhile, it’s wise to steer clear of overvalued sectors like utilities and the high-flying growth stocks—examples include IONQ and KTOS—which are trading at exceptionally high market multiples. Avoid chasing these names; if you missed their recent rally, patience will pay off, as there will be chances to enter at more attractive levels.

When should you consider selling during the week? Short-term traders might look to take profits after a 2–3% gain from their entry point, especially if the market rallies sharply on favorable economic developments. For long-term investors, September’s strong performance suggests it could be prudent to lock in some gains this week. Historically, October often brings a market pullback, setting the stage for fresh buying opportunities and robust rebounds in November and December.

If you notice a sharp rally late in the week (September 25–26), short-term traders should consider trimming positions due to potential profit-taking and reversals tied to quarter-end volatility.

To summarize an actionable strategy for the week of September 22–26:

• Buy on weakness early in the week, particularly if negative sentiment and dips follow economic releases.
• Focus on undervalued sectors like small-cap, value, technology, real estate, and healthcare.
• Sell into strength if you’re trading short-term, or hold steady for a Q4 rebound if you’re a long-term investor.
• Exercise caution around overvalued sectors such as utilities and high-multiple growth stocks.
• Keep a close eye on macroeconomic news, including Fed announcements, tariffs, and economic data releases, as these will likely drive volatility.

Earnings To Watch This Week

Monday: DGNX, FLY

Tuesday: MU, AZO, THO, AIR

Wednesday: CTAS, KBH, UEC, FUL, WS, SFIX

Thursday: ACN, COST, JBL, KMX, BB, SNX

Friday: None

Top Picks For the Week of September 22 – September 26, 2025

Ki-Wealth identifies several standout stocks worth close attention. Investors seeking potential profitable trades or solid investments should consider these names carefully.

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